Everything is still open in the Finnish Premier League, but this is a match HJK can not afford to lose if they want to stay in the title race. There will be a total of 32 rounds, and the top-6 only play against each other from now on. A lot of 6-point matches to come!
HJK’s last two matches – both the Finnish Cup final and the away game against FC Inter – have been among their strongest defensive performances of the season. Having to play a hugely important league match just two days after the final drew understandable criticism from head coach Miika Nuutinen toward the fixture schedule. However, keeping clean sheets against both Inter and KuPS in back-to-back games will surely boost confidence for the remainder of the season, as HJK has so far struggled with both balance on the pitch and preventing goals.
Ilves rose to the top of the league after taking care of Wednesday’s home match against Gnistan with a 3–2 win. The game reflected Ilves’ season in miniature: scoring chances are created with eye-catching combinations, but at the same time, failures in man-marking and communication in their own box allow the opponent easy high-expectancy goal opportunities. Ilves must plug the leaks in their defensive line quickly if they want to keep their place at the top of the table.
HJK form is better than earlier this season:
In the title race, HJK is clearly in the chasing position. The risk management seen in the Inter and KuPS matches may no longer be an option, as the home game against the league leaders has become a must-win after earlier point losses. HJK has edged just ahead of Ilves in terms of power rating, and I estimate the hosts to be about 50% favorites. If both teams approach the match with an active game plan, we may well see a high-scoring encounter despite the high stakes.