No, not with this squad. Unfortunately.
Given the poor player material of Finland and the poor tactics of the the new coach, Friis, there is only one reason to think of Finnish success here. The fact that this is a sport is evident, as seen in the Finnish basketball team's performance last night against Serbia, where they were underdogs in the market by 20 points!
There are also important absentees, the keeper Hradecky who is absolutely key, and some defenders like Hoskonen. Defense was the weakest department anyway, or is it the attack?
Poland’s debut under new head coach Jan Urban provided early signs of a shift toward a clearer balance between attack and defense. Against the Netherlands, the defensive compactness worked surprisingly well, though their attacking play relied mostly on isolated moments and counterattacks. Poland’s main strength remains in its physicality and experience at international level, particularly in the ability of their strikers to convert even half-chances into goals.
From Finland’s perspective, the biggest challenge will be preventing Poland from creating shooting opportunities through the central channels. The roles of the central midfield and center-backs will be crucial: if Finland can slow down Poland’s progression in these areas, the tempo of the match could tilt in their favor. Offensively, Finland may find opportunities in behind, since Poland are likely to push higher at home. This could bring pacey players, such as Oliver Antman, into key roles.
In terms of physical load, Finland hold a clear advantage, as most of their key players were rested against Norway. This freshness may prove decisive in the latter stages, when spaces tend to appear between Poland’s lines. While Poland still possesses the higher baseline quality, the match could turn out to be more balanced than expected if Finland succeed in collective defending and strike at the right moments in transition.
Some notes from the Polish press:
Tomas Arceusz, who knows Finnish football well, underlined the contrasts:
"The game will be completely different than in Helsinki. Robert Lewandowski and Piotr Zieliński, Poland’s biggest stars, will play in Chorzów. In June, both were absent. We have more advantages on our side. On Sunday, Finland will be missing goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky due to a knee injury. The AS Monaco keeper is not only their biggest star but also their leader. That’s a huge loss. He organizes the entire defense, which is already their weakest line. Without him, Finland loses a great deal. Also, key defender Arttu Hoskonen won’t be available."
Head coach Jan Urban stressed the need for adaptability depending on how Finland approach the match:
"We can play like we did against the Netherlands, but the game will look completely different against Finland. Both teams know what they are playing for. We must be ready for an open game — a draw won’t be enough for Finland, they want to win here. If that’s the case, the match will be very attractive, because we also want to win. Otherwise, we need to be prepared to build patiently through positional play."
Finland, meanwhile, tried to make itself comfortable in the surroundings of Chorzów. Head coach Jacob Friis’s players trained in weather conditions reminiscent of home, and were even greeted on the stadium screen by their flag and the words “Welcome”.
Polish expert Kasimierz Węgrzyn highlighted what might be the recipe for success against the Finns:
"The Finns can defend very well. Playing through the middle is like banging your head against a wall. They defend with the whole team, just like we did against the Netherlands. They scored quickly after one decisive mistake from their opponent. That shaped the whole game. We need to play against Finland the same way we did against the Dutch."
Tactical Implications
The absence of Hradecky and Hoskonen represents a major blow to Finland’s defensive structure, stripping them of both their leader and one of their most reliable central defenders. Poland will likely attempt to exploit this by feeding Lewandowski early and often, while Zieliński’s creativity between the lines could force makeshift solutions from Finland’s midfield.
For Finland, the key remains collective defending and rapid transition play. Without their usual defensive anchor, however, the margin for error shrinks considerably. This could turn into a match where Poland’s higher individual quality is finally able to break through — unless Finland can reproduce the disciplined compactness that frustrated the Dutch in earlier rounds.
该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:不，这支队伍不行。不幸的是。
考虑到芬兰队糟糕的球员材料和新教练弗里斯糟糕的战术，芬兰队在这里取得成功的理由只有一个。这是一项运动的事实是显而易见的，就像芬兰篮球队昨晚对塞尔维亚的表现一样，他们在市场上落后20分！
还有一些重要的缺阵球员，门将赫拉迪基绝对是关键，还有一些后卫，比如霍斯科宁。防守是最弱的部门，还是进攻？
波兰队在新任主教练扬•乌尔班（Jan Urban）的首次亮相提供了一些早期迹象，表明波兰队正朝着更清晰的攻防平衡转变。对阵荷兰队时，紧凑的防守发挥了惊人的作用，尽管他们的进攻主要依赖于孤立的时刻和反击。波兰队的主要优势在于他们的身体素质和在国际比赛中的经验，特别是他们的前锋将半场机会转化为进球的能力。
从芬兰的角度来看，最大的挑战将是阻止波兰通过中央通道创造射门机会。中场和中后卫的作用将是至关重要的：如果芬兰队能在这些方面减缓波兰队的进步，比赛的节奏可能会向有利于他们的方向倾斜。在进攻端，芬兰队可能会在后面找到机会，因为波兰可能会在主场步步高升。这可能会让奥利弗·安特曼（Oliver Antman）等速度快的球员担任关键角色。
在体力负荷方面，芬兰队拥有明显的优势，因为他们的大多数主力球员在对阵挪威的比赛中都休息了。这种新鲜感在波兰的后期可能会起到决定性作用，因为波兰的国境线之间往往会出现空间。虽然波兰队仍然拥有更高的底线质量，但如果芬兰队在集体防守中取得成功，并在适当的过渡时刻发动进攻，这场比赛可能会比预期的更加平衡。
以下是波兰媒体的评论：
熟悉芬兰足球的托马斯·阿塞乌斯强调了这种反差：
“这场比赛将与赫尔辛基奥运会完全不同。波兰最大牌的球星罗伯特·莱万多夫斯基和彼得·Zieliński将在Chorzów比赛。今年6月，两人都缺席了。我们有更多的优势。周日，芬兰队门将赫拉迪基将因膝伤缺阵。摩纳哥的门将不仅是他们最大的明星，也是他们的领袖。这是一个巨大的损失。他组织了整个防线，这已经是他们最薄弱的防线了。没有他，芬兰损失惨重。另外，主力后卫霍斯科宁也不能上场。”
主教练扬·乌尔班强调，需要根据芬兰队的比赛方式进行调整。
“我们可以像对阵荷兰队时那样踢球，但对阵芬兰的比赛将完全不同。两支球队都知道他们在为什么而战。我们必须为一场开放的比赛做好准备，一场平局对芬兰来说是不够的，他们想在这里赢球。如果是这样的话，这场比赛将非常吸引人，因为我们也想赢。否则，我们需要准备好耐心地通过阵地法来建立。”
与此同时，芬兰试图让自己在Chorzów的环境中感到舒适。主教练雅各布·弗里斯的球员们在让人想起家乡的天气条件下训练，甚至在体育场的屏幕上用他们的国旗和“欢迎”的字样迎接他们。
波兰专家卡西米兹Węgrzyn强调了战胜芬兰人的秘诀：
“芬兰人防守很好。打中路就像用头撞墙。他们全队防守，就像我们对阵荷兰队一样。在对手犯了一个决定性的错误后，他们很快就得分了。这决定了整个比赛。我们要像对阵荷兰队那样打芬兰。”
战术的影响
赫拉德基和霍斯科宁的缺席对芬兰的防守结构来说是一个重大打击，既失去了他们的领袖，也失去了他们最可靠的中卫之一。波兰队很可能会利用这一点，尽早且频繁地给莱万多夫斯基喂球，而Zieliński在边线之间的创造力可能会迫使芬兰中场采取临时解决方案。
对于芬兰来说，关键仍然是集体防守和快速转变。然而，没有了他们通常的防守支柱，失误的余地大大缩小了。这场比赛可能会让波兰队凭借更高的个人水平最终取得突破——除非芬兰队能重现前几轮挫败荷兰队的那种纪律严整。
