Leeds haven’t beaten a side by more than a goal across their last six games
Stoke are unbeaten in five
The Potters have conceded 7.7 Expected Goals across their last nine matches
Nerves for Leeds as promotion looms
It’s understandable if Leeds are feeling the pressure in the Championship run-in, having let promotion slip their their fingers in the final games of last term. Daniel Farke’s side put their top-flight dreams at risk by drawing three consecutive games, but they’ve improved of late.
Leeds are no longer blowing opponents away as they head down the stretch. They’ve put that poor run behind them with three straight wins by a single goal. Since the start of March, Leeds’ only win by multiple goals came thanks to a late strike in a 2-0 victory over Millwall.
The hosts are focused on just doing enough, especially given that the two sides directly behind them face each other later on Monday. The Whites could secure promotion on Monday evening if results go their way, so this could be a no-frills display.
Stoke are no pushovers right now, they’ve put together a five-game unbeaten run and their defensive numbers are strong. The visitors have conceded just 7.7 Expected Goals across their last nine starts. They can frustrate at Elland Road, while the fatigued hosts are unlikely to take big risks. Back Stoke with a +2 handicap, while Leeds are favoured for a narrow 1-0 win.
