Napoli had to settle for a goalless draw against FC Venezia in the final round before the international break, despite dominating the match with a performance that deserved a win. Antonio Conte’s squad has recently been paying the price for their overperformance in the autumn, as fortune seems to have turned against them. However, despite dropping points, the overall quality of their performances has remained fairly consistent.
Milan, on the other hand, has secured back-to-back wins against weaker opponents, Como and Lecce. After a promising start under head coach Sérgio Conceição, Milan has often slipped back into the mediocrity seen earlier in the season. Defensive lapses have cost them points at times, and while the gap to the Champions League spots is still bridgeable, they cannot afford unnecessary slip-ups in such a competitive race.
The difference in quality between these teams is smaller than the league standings might suggest. Napoli, slightly stronger in terms of raw performance, enjoys home advantage and enters the match as a moderate favorite, but not even close to 50%.