Serbia VS Switzerland
Serbia and Switzerland lock horns in this Group G battle at Stadium 974 in Doha early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the final round of group stage and stakes are sky-high! The situation goin into this game is pretty straight forward. There is also some extra tension in the match because of a match played in some years ago and some other things done by the Serbs recently.. The main thing behind this tension is the bad relationship between Serbia and Kosovo. There are players with Kosovo Albanian descent playing for Switzerland – Xhaka and Shaqiri. I would not be at all surprised to see heated events, many cards - perhaps even a red card in this clash. Serbia need to win to - otherwise they are out. However, even a win might not be enough if Cameroon manage to cause a massive upset on beat Brazil, the number one favorites to lift the trophy. The convincing Brazil currently top the standings with six points in the pocket Switzerland have three and a goal difference of 1:1, Cameroon (3:4) and Serbia (3:5) have won point to their account. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. After that the decider will be the number of goals scored. The top-2 teams qualify for the play offs. Interestingly, Switzerland also might need a win to qualify if Cameroon wins. The biggest bookmakers with the biggest betting limits see Serbia as the favorites here. I strongly disagree! No one would, of course, be too surprised if the Serbs were to improve and end up winning this but in my opinion Switzerland have looked better so far in this tournament. Not only the results but also expected goals (xG) prove this. The Swiss have a 41% chance to win this very interesting battle. A draw would be enough for my fans and me to win so the chance is over 70%!
Switzerland were better than Serbia against Brazil losing only 0-1 through Casemiro's goal in the 83th minute. Brazil did fully deserve the win but as the Swiss did not record any shots on goal – neither did the Serbs! Brazil were just too good defensively. Even so, Switzerland challenged the Brazilians better than the Serbs did. Brazil only recorded 54% ball possession against them. Switzerland managed to create four goal attempts - the same number as the Serbs did. Brazil's number against the Swiss was nine. However, Brazil beat Serbia 2-0 after recording 24 shots on goal and 59% ball possession.. Furthermore, the Swiss defeated Cameroon 1-0 after not and awesome, but very solid performance! They can, and I believe still improve though - especially offensively. The first half was somewhat balanced but in the second half the Swiss proved their class and scored the goal needed to win. They recorded 1.94 in xG – the Africans number was 0.78. Serbia, on the other hand, played a weird match against Cameroon. The Africans took the lead but then Serbia scored two very quick goals right before half time and seemed to be in control and definitely the better team on the pitch. Fulhams's star striker Mitrovic made it 3-1 in the 53th minute but then things went horribly wrong for Serbia.. They become very passive, a bit lazy and I would say even a bit arrogant/ overconfident.. This should not happen at this level! Cameroon punished them and made it 3-3 and even could have won in the end! As a whole Serbia were slightly the better team though and recorded 2.34 in expected goals – Cameroon's number was 1.98.
Mitrovic has suffered from an ankle injury this autumn and whilst he will probably play here – based on my observations he is far from his best.. His movement on the pitch is 70-80% of his normal (great) level. Juventus's star striker Vlahovic has also suffered from injuries in recent months and might not be able to play – at least not for the full 90 minutes. He is surely not at his best either! Ajax's creative and dangerous Dusan Tadic could save Serbia here but has not found his best level so far in Qatar.. These strikers' situation is a major blow for Serbia's chances against the tactically smart, experienced and surprisingly creative Swiss team. They beat Serbia 2-1 in the 2018 World Cup in Russia and also have an excellent coach, Murat Yakin. I would not be surprised to see some chances in the Serbian defense as Nikola Milenkovic – Milos Veljkovic – Strahinja Pavlovic have not found the best ”chemistry” so far.. I mentioned on my analysis on the Brazil vs Serbia that Serbia's defense is not bad but that their defenders are far from word-class. Well, Serbia's defensive football as a whole has been very far from world-class so far! Let's not forget that Switzerland defeated perhaps the second-best team in the world - and reigning champions, France in the EURO 2020 play offs in the summer of 2021.Taking into account a point should be enough to secure progression, Yakin may implement the same, more cautious/defensive approach he chose to use against in the opening game with Xhaka and Freuler sitting in front of the back four. Talented and often under-rated Embolo is the most probable choice in attack. He is the only player to net the ball for Switzerland up to this point. He is probably being supported by Sow through the middle, while Vargas and Shaqiri could contribute in advanced wide roles.
