Chelsea vs Manchester City
Chelsea host Manchester City for this English Premier League round 19 clash at Stamford Bridge in London early Friday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played just 16 games so far in the best league on the planet. The football fans all over the world have every reason to expect an entertaining battle between the reigning Premier League champions and the UEFA Champions League winners from 2021. I also see a lucrative betting opportunity here. Unfortunately for Chelsea their level has hugely dropped since lifting the Champions League trophy. Even last season was a slightly disappointing one for them. This season, however, has been close to a catastrophe! They currently occupy the 10th place with just just 25 to their account. Moreover, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved just 18.97 points. They have netted the ball just 20 times and the offensive problems have further deepened from last season. They still do not have a world-class striker. As a whole their offense has lacked speed, passing accuracy near the opponents goals and creativity. Their defense has, however, been quite okay and they have conceded 18 goals. However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 24.32. Their quite new manager is an overrated guy in my opinion and is no match to the best manager in the world in my view, Pep Guardiola. Chelsea surely do have some potential for improvement but at the moment things look grim for them and the opponent should be too strong even if Chelsea were to play well. In their most recent match the hosts were extremely disappointing against Nottingham, the worst team in this league by pure class in my opinion. It was a 1-1 draw away from home and Chelsea only recorded a little more in expected goal (xG). Nottingham's xG was 1.12 – Chelsea created 1.38 despite being very clear favorites to win – priced around 1.65 to win on the betting market. Before this they did beat Bournemouth, a pretty lowly team, 2-0 at home but were not overly convincing. They have now lost four, taken one win and a draw in their most recent games.
Manchester City had to settle for a disappointing and surprising 1-1 draw last Saturday at home but would have deserved all three points! They totally dominated the match recording 2.53 in xG. Everton's number was just 0.07. Manchester City are one of the best teams on the planet and it is very clear for everyone who follows football that the visitors are clear favorites today.. The betting market has clearly over-reacted to the draw against Everton. City must be very irritated here and need to win as Arsenal keep performing well and have an eight-point-lead in the standings with one more match played than City who have 36 points in the bank. City will have to fight hard to win the league - again. The biggest, usually quite sharp bookmakers that accept the biggest bets offer odds of around 1.70-1.75 for City to win.. I would say that they have a 63% chance to travel home with all three points. I still want to mention that they have scored close to eight more goals than the xG would suggest and been a little lucky in terms of xPTS.. Even so, I rate them as the best team in this league but have still slightly lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from my in-depth preseason analysis. The main rationale behind the pick is to go against Chelsea. On the 28th of December against Leeds away from home Man City took a fully deserved 3-1 win. They recorded 3.98 in expected goals – Leeds’s number was 0.78. Leeds played below their normal – not so great – level though. Today City, of course, have a clear edge in all areas of the game and have a better situation in terms of players available. Chelsea will be missing Broja, Fofana and James due to a knee injury. Important Kante has a hamstring injury. Chillwell, Loftus-Cheek and Mendy are questionable. City will be without Dias and Mendy – Alvarez's and Laporte's situation is unclear at the time of writing this Thursday evening Beijing time.
本译文使用有道机器翻译，仅供参考：
切尔西vs曼城
北京时间周五凌晨，英超联赛第19轮切尔西将在伦敦斯坦福桥主场迎战曼城。然而，事实上，两支球队到目前为止只在这个星球上最好的联赛中打了16场比赛。世界各地的球迷有充分的理由期待英超卫冕冠军和欧洲冠军联赛冠军之间从2021年开始的一场有趣的战斗。我也看到了一个有利可图的赌博机会。不幸的是，对于切尔西来说，他们的水平在捧起欧冠奖杯后大幅下降。即使上个赛季对他们来说也有点令人失望。然而，这个赛季已经接近一场灾难!目前排名第十，仅有25家。此外，在预期得分(xPTS)方面，他们只应得18.97分。他们只进了20次球，进攻方面的问题比上赛季更加严重。他们仍然没有世界级的前锋。总的来说，他们的进攻缺乏速度，在对手球门附近传球的准确性和创造力。不过，他们的防守还不错，已经丢了18个球。然而，他们的期望进球数(xGA)是24.32。在我看来，他们的新教练被高估了，在我看来，他比不上世界上最好的教练瓜迪奥拉。切尔西确实有一些进步的潜力，但目前情况对他们来说很严峻，即使切尔西踢得好，对手也太强大了。在最近的一场比赛中，东道主对诺丁汉的表现非常令人失望，在我看来，诺丁汉是这个联赛中纯粹等级最差的球队。客场1-1战平，切尔西只比预期进球多一点点。诺丁汉的xG为1.12，而切尔西的xG为1.38，尽管他们非常有希望获胜，但在*市场上的定价约为1.65。在此之前，他们确实在主场2-0击败了伯恩茅斯，一支相当低的球队，但没有太大的说服力。在最近的比赛中，他们已经输了4场，取得了1胜1平。
上周六，曼城不得不在主场以令人失望和意外的1-1战平，但他们应该得到三分!他们在xG中以2.53的成绩完全统治了比赛。埃弗顿的数字只有0.07。曼城是世界上最好的球队之一，对于每个关注足球的人来说，今天的客队显然是最受欢迎的。*市场显然对与埃弗顿的平局反应过度。曼城在这里肯定很恼火，他们需要赢球，因为阿森纳一直表现出色，在比曼城多踢一场比赛的情况下，他们在积分榜上领先8分，而曼城的银行积分是36分。曼城将不得不为赢得联赛冠军而努力奋斗。——再一次。最大的，通常相当敏锐的*公司接受最大的赌注，为曼城提供约1.70-1.75的*。我会说他们有63%的机会带着这三分回家。我仍然想说的是，他们比xG多进了近8个球，在xPTS方面有点幸运。即便如此，我仍然认为他们是联盟中最好的球队，但从我的季前赛深度分析来看，他们的实力评级仍然略有下降，这反映了球队的纯粹水平。选择他的主要原因是为了对抗切尔西。在12月28日客场对阵利兹联队的比赛中，曼城3-1完胜。他们的预期进球数为3.98个——利兹联的预期进球数为0.78个。利兹队的表现低于他们的正常水平，虽然不是很好。当然，今天的曼城在比赛的各个方面都有明显的优势，而且在可用球员方面也有更好的情况。由于膝盖受伤，切尔西将失去布罗哈、福法纳和詹姆斯。坎特的腿筋受伤了。奇尔威尔，洛夫特斯-奇克和门迪都有问题。曼城将失去迪亚斯和门迪——阿尔瓦雷斯和拉波特的情况在北京时间本周四晚上写稿时还不清楚。
