2023-01-05【英超】利兹联VS西汉姆联预测_分析

易红单 2023-01-04 09:02:40 92 上一篇下一篇

Leeds VS West Ham

Leeds host West Ham for this for this English Premier League round 19 battle at Elland Road early Thursday morning Beijing time. However, Leeds have played 16 matches and West ham 17 so far in this league. This is the best league in the world but unfortunately this match most probably will not offer a particularly superb entertainment experience for football fans.. However, I think we have yet another great betting opportunity here – and have won 8/10 of the latest picks on The Premier League! I have posted an analysis on two other lucrative games on this league as well!  Just by looking at the standings this pick might sound a bit weird.. However, once again I will not let the league table fool me.. West Ham currently occupy the 17th place in the standings with 14 points to their account and have unarguably been one of the biggest disappointments so far this season.. Last season they performed very well and finished in 7th with 56 points and a good score difference of 60:51. Yes, they are not expected to reach a top-8 place this season but the change from last season should not by any means be massive.. Even so, I have lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from the in-depth preseason analysis. I rate them as the 11th-best team in this league – much higher than the betting market that seems to have lost faith in  West Ham by now.. However, I want to highlight that my rating is not based on the potential the visitors have on all areas of the game  or some irrational, "stubborn" belief on them to raise their level of football. Indeed, there is data to support the fact that West Ham have been massively unlucky this season! Indeed, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 24.76 points. With this number of points they would be in the 9th place in the league table! Their number of expected goals (xG) is 22.04.

West Ham have lost several games in a row in this league and this has surely negatively  affected their level of confidence and team spirit and I have taken this into account in my estimation. During the World Cup break they did, however, get positive results beating a decent Serie A team, Udinese, 3-1, Cambridge United 4-2 and played a draw with Fulham. The biggest bookmakers who accept the largest bets see Leeds as the favorites but I disagree. In my view West Ham are slim favorites!  A draw would be enough for my fans and me and this result is more probable – with a chance of 30% -  than the betting market estimates. Moreover,  I see this clash between two somewhat out-of-form teams to be more low-scoring than the bookmakers thinks. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 52%. I expect both teams to be pretty okay with a draw.. Especially for West Ham avoiding the defeat may be the main priority here.. In their most recent game the visitors lost to a surprisingly strong Brentford, currently up in 7th place after beating Liverpool this week, 0-2 at home. Yes, the result is disappointing but the final score is misleading! West Ham had 63% ball possession and recorded much more scoring attempts (20-6), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 71-20. Brentford did record one more shot on goal and a little more (1.39-1.14) in xG. Before this they lost to Arsenal, who top the standings, 1-3 away from home. Arsenal were priced around 1.55 to win on the betting market so the loss was nothing surprising or something to be ashamed of. The final score does flatter Arsenal as they recorded 1.77 in xG – West Ham's number was also decent – 1.12. I also want to highlight that West Ham's season has not been only disappointments as they dominated the UEFA Conference League Group B winning all six games despite sometimes pretty heavy squad rotation. Their goal difference is excellent 13:4. Fine performances indeed!  Leeds were very close to relegation last season and I expect to go through the same fight again this season.. They have taken 16 points so far and occupy the 14th place in the standings but would have deserved 1.12 more in terms of xPTS. Their offense has been pretty strong and they have netted the ball 23 times but their defense has often been leaky. Indeed, they have allowed 29 goals! Their defenders make too many silly individual mistakes and the defensive structure - including the midfielders – is quite often poor.. Leeds have been on pretty poor form results-wise in the Premier League lately. On the 28th of December they were totally dominated by Manchester City at home and totally deservedly lost 1-3. City created around 4.00 in xG. Leeds's xG was only around 0.50 goals.. The final score could easily have been even more clear in the Citizens' favor.. Leeds did defend pretty well in their most recent match in Newcastle and stole a point. However, they had massive luck on their side as the hosts recorded 2.92 in xG – Leeds created just 0.47. They only recorded one shot on goal and 18 dangerous attacks. However, Leeds were, of course, clear underdogs in both of the previous games.

I also want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts' players have a total market value of 283.80 million euros. In my opinion this is too high! I would set the number at around 240 million.. Leeds are, after all, a somewhat lowly team without any true stars or potential for improvement At least three players are over-valued. The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a quite good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one. The bookmakers, football journalists and especially professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values nowadays.. However, if two players are equally good and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable.. For example, the fresh World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Lewandowski do not have even close to the biggest current market value despite being top-10 players in the world!  West ham's squad is valued at 460.50 million which is a bit too high in my opinion. Leeds were very happy to welcomeTyler Adams back against Newcastle, but his partner Adam Forshaw played until halftime before being taken off as his fitness was carefully managed.. Leeds are still missing Luis Sinisterra, Archie Gray and Stuart Dallas. Furthermore, injury-plagued Patrick Bamford - muscle issue this time -  is also expected not to play at the time of writing this preview Wednesday morning Beijing time.. As for the visitors, Gianluca Scamacca has recovered from an ankle knock and was able to play a full match against Brentford. Kurt Zouma (knee injury) and Maxwel Cornet (calf injury) should be West Ham's only absentees. Players to watch closely include for example Leeds's Rodrigo, who has a potential for more than we have witnessed lately.. He scored before half-time in all four of the hosts' wins this season in this league. West Ham's talented Algerian midfielder Saïd Benrahma, 27, has scored the first goal in two of their last four Premier League games and has the skills to be even more effective than we have seen so far this season!

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利兹联队VS西汉姆联队

北京时间周四凌晨,英超联赛第19轮利兹联队主场迎战西汉姆联队。然而,到目前为止,利兹联打了16场比赛,西汉姆联打了17场。这是世界上最好的联赛,但不幸的是,这场比赛很可能不会为球迷提供特别出色的娱乐体验。然而,我认为我们在这里还有另一个很好的投注机会——并且已经赢得了8/10的最新英超选秀权!我也曾发表过一篇关于这个联赛中另外两场赚钱比赛的分析文章!单从排名来看,这个选择可能听起来有点奇怪。然而,再一次,我不会让排行榜欺骗我。西汉姆联目前以14分排名第17位,毫无疑问是本赛季迄今为止最令人失望的球队之一。上赛季他们表现得非常好,以56分的成绩排在第7位,比分相差60:51。是的,他们本赛季预计不会进入前8名,但与上赛季相比,无论如何变化都不会很大。即便如此,我还是从深入的季前赛分析中降低了他们的实力评级,这反映了球队的纯粹水平。我认为他们在联盟中排名第11位,比*市场似乎对他们失去信心的球队要高得多。西汉姆联队…然而,我想强调的是,我的评级并不是基于访问者对游戏所有领域的潜力。或者是一些非理性的、“固执的”信念,认为他们应该提高自己的足球水平。事实上,有数据支持西汉姆联本赛季非常不幸的事实!实际上,就预期得分(xPTS)而言,他们应该得到24.76分。以这样的分数,他们将在积分榜上排名第九!他们的期望进球数(xG)是22.04个。

西汉姆联在联赛中已经连续输了几场比赛,这肯定是负面的 影响了他们的信心和团队精神,我已经把这一点考虑在内。在世界杯期间,他们确实取得了积极的成绩,3-1击败了一支意甲球队乌迪内斯,4-2击败了剑桥联队,并与富勒姆打平。接受最大赌注的最大*公司认为利兹联是最热门的球队,但我不同意。在我看来,西汉姆联是夺冠的小热门!对于我的球迷和我来说,平局就足够了,这个结果的可能性更大——有30%的几率。比*市场的预期要高。此外,,我认为两支状态不佳的球队之间的这场冲突比*公司认为的要低得多。总进球数在2.5球以下的概率为52%。我希望两队都能接受平局。尤其是对西汉姆联队来说,避免失败可能是首要任务。在最近的一场比赛中,客队输给了实力惊人的布伦特福德,本周主场0-2击败利物浦后,目前排名第7。是的,结果令人失望,但最终的分数是误导性的!西汉姆联有63%的控球率,记录了更多的得分次数(20-6),总传球,完成传球,攻击和危险攻击- 71-20。布伦特福德确实多了一次射门,并且在xG中多了一点(1.39-1.14)。在此之前,他们在客场1-3负于积分榜第一的阿森纳。在*市场上,阿森纳获胜的定价约为1.55英镑,所以输球并不令人惊讶或感到羞耻。最终的比分让阿森纳感到欣慰,他们的xG得分为1.77,而西汉姆联的得分也不错,为1.12。我还想强调的是,西汉姆联本赛季并不只是令人失望,他们在欧足联联盟B组的比赛中占据主导地位,尽管有时阵容轮换相当繁重,但他们还是赢得了全部6场比赛。他们的净胜球是13:4。表演真精彩!利兹联上赛季非常接近降级,我希望本赛季再次经历同样的战斗。到目前为止,他们已经获得了16分,在积分榜上排名第14位,但在xPTS方面应该得到1.12分。他们的进攻相当强大,他们已经得分23次,但他们的防守经常有漏洞。事实上,他们已经失球29个!他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的个人错误,防守结构——包括中场球员——经常很糟糕。利兹最近在英超联赛中表现不佳。12月28日,他们在主场完全被曼城控制,1-3输得当之无愧。城市创建大约4.00 xG。利兹的xG只有0.5个进球。最后的比分本可以更明显地对公民有利。利兹联在最近一场对阵纽卡斯尔的比赛中防守得很好,偷走了一分。然而,他们的运气非常好,东道主的xG得分为2.92,利兹的xG得分仅为0.47。他们只记录了1次射门和18次危险进攻。然而,利兹联队在前两场比赛中显然处于下风。

我还想提到的是,根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,东道主球员的总市值为2.8380亿欧元。在我看来,这太高了!我会把这个数字定在2.4亿左右。毕竟,利兹联是一支实力较弱的球队,没有真正的球星,也没有提升的潜力。至少有三名球员被高估了。当然,总市值有时会被误导,但仍然是一个相当好的指标,一个球队在球场上的实际行动水平。毕竟,足球(球员)市场是全球性的。如今,*公司、足球记者,尤其是职业足球投注者越来越关注球队的总市场价值。然而,如果两个球员同样优秀,其中一个25岁,另一个35岁,那么年轻的球员当然更有价值。例如,新晋世界冠军梅西或巴塞罗那的波兰超级球星莱万多夫斯基,尽管是世界排名前十的球员,但他们的市值甚至还没有接近最大的当前市值!西汉姆联队的身价是4.605亿,在我看来有点太高了。利兹联队很高兴在对阵纽卡斯尔的比赛中迎来亚当斯的回归,但是他的搭档亚当·福肖直到中场休息才被换下。利兹联仍然缺少路易斯·辛尼特拉,阿奇·格雷和斯图亚特·达拉斯。此外,饱受伤病困扰的帕特里克·班福德这次肌肉出现了问题。在北京时间周三早上写这篇预告的时候,预计也不会玩。客队方面,吉安卢卡·斯卡甲已经从脚踝受伤中恢复过来,并且能够在对阵布伦特福德的比赛中打满全场。库尔特·祖玛(膝盖受伤)和马克斯维尔·科内(小腿受伤)应该是西汉姆联唯一缺席的球员。值得密切关注的球员包括利兹联的罗德里戈,他的潜力超过了我们最近看到的。在本赛季的四场比赛中,他都在半场结束前进球。西汉姆联天才阿尔及利亚中场Saïd 27岁的本拉赫马在过去四场英超比赛中有两场打进首球,他的技术甚至比我们本赛季迄今为止看到的更有效!


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