Leeds VS West Ham
Leeds host West Ham for this for this English Premier League round 19 battle at Elland Road early Thursday morning Beijing time. However, Leeds have played 16 matches and West ham 17 so far in this league. This is the best league in the world but unfortunately this match most probably will not offer a particularly superb entertainment experience for football fans.. However, I think we have yet another great betting opportunity here – and have won 8/10 of the latest picks on The Premier League! I have posted an analysis on two other lucrative games on this league as well! Just by looking at the standings this pick might sound a bit weird.. However, once again I will not let the league table fool me.. West Ham currently occupy the 17th place in the standings with 14 points to their account and have unarguably been one of the biggest disappointments so far this season.. Last season they performed very well and finished in 7th with 56 points and a good score difference of 60:51. Yes, they are not expected to reach a top-8 place this season but the change from last season should not by any means be massive.. Even so, I have lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class from the in-depth preseason analysis. I rate them as the 11th-best team in this league – much higher than the betting market that seems to have lost faith in West Ham by now.. However, I want to highlight that my rating is not based on the potential the visitors have on all areas of the game or some irrational, "stubborn" belief on them to raise their level of football. Indeed, there is data to support the fact that West Ham have been massively unlucky this season! Indeed, in terms of expected points (xPTS) they would have deserved 24.76 points. With this number of points they would be in the 9th place in the league table! Their number of expected goals (xG) is 22.04.
West Ham have lost several games in a row in this league and this has surely negatively affected their level of confidence and team spirit and I have taken this into account in my estimation. During the World Cup break they did, however, get positive results beating a decent Serie A team, Udinese, 3-1, Cambridge United 4-2 and played a draw with Fulham. The biggest bookmakers who accept the largest bets see Leeds as the favorites but I disagree. In my view West Ham are slim favorites! A draw would be enough for my fans and me and this result is more probable – with a chance of 30% - than the betting market estimates. Moreover, I see this clash between two somewhat out-of-form teams to be more low-scoring than the bookmakers thinks. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 52%. I expect both teams to be pretty okay with a draw.. Especially for West Ham avoiding the defeat may be the main priority here.. In their most recent game the visitors lost to a surprisingly strong Brentford, currently up in 7th place after beating Liverpool this week, 0-2 at home. Yes, the result is disappointing but the final score is misleading! West Ham had 63% ball possession and recorded much more scoring attempts (20-6), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks – 71-20. Brentford did record one more shot on goal and a little more (1.39-1.14) in xG. Before this they lost to Arsenal, who top the standings, 1-3 away from home. Arsenal were priced around 1.55 to win on the betting market so the loss was nothing surprising or something to be ashamed of. The final score does flatter Arsenal as they recorded 1.77 in xG – West Ham's number was also decent – 1.12. I also want to highlight that West Ham's season has not been only disappointments as they dominated the UEFA Conference League Group B winning all six games despite sometimes pretty heavy squad rotation. Their goal difference is excellent 13:4. Fine performances indeed! Leeds were very close to relegation last season and I expect to go through the same fight again this season.. They have taken 16 points so far and occupy the 14th place in the standings but would have deserved 1.12 more in terms of xPTS. Their offense has been pretty strong and they have netted the ball 23 times but their defense has often been leaky. Indeed, they have allowed 29 goals! Their defenders make too many silly individual mistakes and the defensive structure - including the midfielders – is quite often poor.. Leeds have been on pretty poor form results-wise in the Premier League lately. On the 28th of December they were totally dominated by Manchester City at home and totally deservedly lost 1-3. City created around 4.00 in xG. Leeds's xG was only around 0.50 goals.. The final score could easily have been even more clear in the Citizens' favor.. Leeds did defend pretty well in their most recent match in Newcastle and stole a point. However, they had massive luck on their side as the hosts recorded 2.92 in xG – Leeds created just 0.47. They only recorded one shot on goal and 18 dangerous attacks. However, Leeds were, of course, clear underdogs in both of the previous games.
I also want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts' players have a total market value of 283.80 million euros. In my opinion this is too high! I would set the number at around 240 million.. Leeds are, after all, a somewhat lowly team without any true stars or potential for improvement At least three players are over-valued. The total market value can, of course, sometimes be misleading but is still a quite good indicator of a team's level in real action on the pitch.. The football (player) market is, after all, a global one. The bookmakers, football journalists and especially professional football bettors pay increasingly more attention to teams' total market values nowadays.. However, if two players are equally good and one of them is 25 years old and the other one is 35, the younger one is, of course, much more valuable.. For example, the fresh World Champion Leo Messi or Barcelona's Polish super star Lewandowski do not have even close to the biggest current market value despite being top-10 players in the world! West ham's squad is valued at 460.50 million which is a bit too high in my opinion. Leeds were very happy to welcomeTyler Adams back against Newcastle, but his partner Adam Forshaw played until halftime before being taken off as his fitness was carefully managed.. Leeds are still missing Luis Sinisterra, Archie Gray and Stuart Dallas. Furthermore, injury-plagued Patrick Bamford - muscle issue this time - is also expected not to play at the time of writing this preview Wednesday morning Beijing time.. As for the visitors, Gianluca Scamacca has recovered from an ankle knock and was able to play a full match against Brentford. Kurt Zouma (knee injury) and Maxwel Cornet (calf injury) should be West Ham's only absentees. Players to watch closely include for example Leeds's Rodrigo, who has a potential for more than we have witnessed lately.. He scored before half-time in all four of the hosts' wins this season in this league. West Ham's talented Algerian midfielder Saïd Benrahma, 27, has scored the first goal in two of their last four Premier League games and has the skills to be even more effective than we have seen so far this season!
